2024 GOP Presidential Analysis: September Edition
The Frontrunner
Donald J. Trump
JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES
Former POTUS, Businessman, Celebrity
Strengths:
- This is not his first rodeo.
- Has a loyal base.
- Has a commanding lead in both national and early state polls.
- Is endorsed by the majority of major figures within the Republican Party.
- Though not technically an incumbent, he enjoys the benefits of an incumbent.
- He does not carry the stigma of being a losing candidate due to a sizeable portion of his base believing that he won the election.
Weaknesses:
- Trump fatigue.
- His mounting legal troubles could cause some to worry about his electability in the general election, but that does not currently seem to be an issue.
- He seems to avoid retail campaigning which typically pays off in early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
- Will skipping the debates hurt him? Probably not.
- Do Republican voters care about “freedom cities” and flying cars?
- His mouth is his own worst enemy.
The Distant Runner-Up
Ron DeSantis
Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel
Florida Governor, Former Congressman
Strengths:
- Governing experience in an important battleground state.
- Has a national profile.
- Established himself as a conservative darling during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- His war against wokeness is admired by many conservatives.
- Markets himself as Trump without the baggage.
- His switch to retail campaigning may benefit him in early primary states.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- His campaign launch was a disaster.
- Polling data shows that the more voters in early primary and caucus states get to know him, the less they like him.
- Lacks charisma.
- Despite his status as runner-up, he is running way behind Trump.
- His debate performance was not the breakthrough moment that he hoped for.
The Potential Overtakers for Second Place
Vivek Ramaswamy