2024 GOP Presidential Analysis: September Edition
The Frontrunner
Donald J. Trump
JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES
Former POTUS, Businessman, Celebrity
Strengths:
- This is not his first rodeo.
- Has a loyal base.
- Has a commanding lead in both national and early state polls.
- Is endorsed by the majority of major figures within the Republican Party.
- Though not technically an incumbent, he enjoys the benefits of an incumbent.
- He does not carry the stigma of being a losing candidate due to a sizeable portion of his base believing that he won the election.
Weaknesses:
- Trump fatigue.
- His mounting legal troubles could cause some to worry about his electability in the general election, but that does not currently seem to be an issue.
- He seems to avoid retail campaigning which typically pays off in early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
- Will skipping the debates hurt him? Probably not.
- Do Republican voters care about “freedom cities” and flying cars?
- His mouth is his own worst enemy.
The Distant Runner-Up
Ron DeSantis
Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel
Florida Governor, Former Congressman
Strengths:
- Governing experience in an important battleground state.
- Has a national profile.
- Established himself as a conservative darling during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- His war against wokeness is admired by many conservatives.
- Markets himself as Trump without the baggage.
- His switch to retail campaigning may benefit him in early primary states.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- His campaign launch was a disaster.
- Polling data shows that the more voters in early primary and caucus states get to know him, the less they like him.
- Lacks charisma.
- Despite his status as runner-up, he is running way behind Trump.
- His debate performance was not the breakthrough moment that he hoped for.
The Potential Overtakers for Second Place
Vivek Ramaswamy
- Has consistently polled in third place and sometimes second.
- With DeSantis faltering, Ramaswamy seems to be nipping at his heels.
- As a billionaire, he can self-fund his campaign.
- His message of anti-wokeness plays well with the conservative base.
- He is regarded by many to have won the first GOP debate.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- He seems to be focused on driving a message rather than winning.
- If his election caught fire, he may have to answer to alleged past ties with the Soros family.
Nikki Haley
Drew Angerer—Getty Images
- A popular former governor from a critical early primary state.
- Her time as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations gives her foreign policy experience.
- She seems able to balance her messaging to please both Trump-supporting and Trump-weary Republicans.
- Performed well in the first debate.
- Internal polling from MAGA Inc. shows that she is surging in Iowa and nearly tied with DeSantis in New Hamshire.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Allegedly inflating your financial numbers is not the type of scandal that a campaign wants so early in the race.
- Polling data had indicated that her support is decreasing, but is that changing?
- Continuing her balancing act will be increasingly difficult as the race progresses.
- Her potential strength in the South Carolina primary is diluted by the presence of Tim Scott in the race.
- She seems reminiscent of Bush-era Republicanism or Reaganism which is also no longer in vogue.
Tim Scott
Anna Moneymaker for The New York Times
- Has a home-state advantage in the early primary state of South Carolina.
- Has experienced some uptick in polling data recently.
- Is running on a positive message of kindness and unity.
- Has connections to wealthy donors.
- Qualified for the debate which is more than what some candidates can claim.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- His potential strength in the South Carolina primary is diluted by the presence of Nikki Haley in the race.
- Nice guys finish last.
- His debate performance was lackluster and mistakes were made. “Tim Scott, are you bought and paid for?” “Absolutely.”
The Distant Hopefuls
Chris Christie
AP Photo/Christopher Barth, File
- Has executive experience as the former governor of New Jersey.
- Recently polled above DeSantis in New Hampshire.
- He is not afraid to be aggressive toward his opponents, including Trump.
- Qualified for the debate and showed a willingness to verbally assault his opponents.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- He is probably too moderate for the current mood of the Republican Party.
Mike Pence
Photo by AP Photo/Matt Rouke
- He has extensive government experience including as a congressman, governor, and Vice President.
- He is performing better in polls than one would expect.
- He attended the debate which is doing better than some candidates.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Many Republicans are still angry about January 6.
- Trump has demonized him to the point of being irrelevant.
- He is a household name but struggled to get the necessary donors to qualify for the debate. That should be a sign that his political career is done.
Doug Burgum
Dave Wallis / The Forum
Governor of North Dakota
- Governing experience.
- Had an okay debate performance.
- Has a Super PAC making major ad buys to try to make Burgum relevant in the race.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Who?
- Failed to have a breakthrough moment at the debate that he bought his way into.
Asa Hutchinson
Tom Williams/ZUMA
Former Governor of Arkansas
Strengths:
- Governing experience.
- Qualified for the debate.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Did not have a breakthrough moment during the first GOP debate.
- Lacks charisma.
The Hopeless
Will Hurd
Former Congressman
Strengths:
- May appeal to the small base of “Never Trumpers.”
- His career as a CIA operative gives him national security bona fides.
- Has a moderate, bipartisan message that would play well in the general election.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Who? “Never Hurd of him.”
- Did not qualify for the first debate and the standards only get harder from here on out.
- Anemic polling.
- Moderation and bipartisanship are not winning messages in a modern GOP primary.
Ryan Binkley
Photo by Radio Iowa.
Pastor, CEO
Strengths:
- Has focused heavily on Iowa which has included ad buys.
- Candidates with an evangelical-themed campaign play well in Iowa.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Who?
- Did not qualify for the debate.
Perry Johnson
Gage Skidmore
Failed Candidate for Governor in Michigan, Businessman
Strengths:
- If you find any, please message Grain of Salt News.
Weaknesses:
Ringo Chiu/AFP via Getty Images
Failed Gubernatorial Candidate, Radio Host
Strengths:
- Some name recognition due to being a radio host.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Did not qualify for the debate and shows no signs of qualifying for future debates.
- Anemic polling.
Steve Laffey
Former Mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island
Strengths:
- Grain of Salt News cannot find any.
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Who?
- Did not qualify for the debate.
- Executive experience in a town in the smallest state does not amount to much.
Corey Stapleton
Wikimedia Commons
Former Montana Secretary of State
Strengths:
- Will his country music woo voters in Iowa?
Weaknesses:
- Not Trump.
- Who?
- Did not qualify for the debate.
- Lost several elections.
E.W. Jackson
AP,Carolyn Kaster
Pastor
Strengths:
- Maybe Iowans will appreciate a candidate who is “running for Jesus.”
Weaknesses:
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
