2024 GOP Primary Analysis: September Edition

 2024 GOP Presidential Analysis: September Edition

The Frontrunner 

Donald J. Trump

JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES

Former POTUS, Businessman, Celebrity 

Strengths:

• This is not his first rodeo.
• Has a loyal base.
• Has a commanding lead in both national and early state polls.
• Is endorsed by the majority of major figures within the Republican Party.
• Though not technically an incumbent, he enjoys the benefits of an incumbent. 
• He does not carry the stigma of being a losing candidate due to a sizeable portion of his base believing that he won the election.

Weaknesses: 

• Trump fatigue. 
• His mounting legal troubles could cause some to worry about his electability in the general election, but that does not currently seem to be an issue.
• He seems to avoid retail campaigning which typically pays off in early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. 
• Will skipping the debates hurt him? Probably not. 
• Do Republican voters care about “freedom cities” and flying cars? 
• His mouth is his own worst enemy. 

The Distant Runner-Up

Ron DeSantis

Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel 

Florida Governor, Former Congressman 

Strengths: 

• Governing experience in an important battleground state.
• Has a national profile.
• Established himself as a conservative darling during the COVID-19 pandemic. 
• His war against wokeness is admired by many conservatives. 
• Markets himself as Trump without the baggage. 
• His switch to retail campaigning may benefit him in early primary states. 

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• His campaign launch was a disaster.
• Polling data shows that the more voters in early primary and caucus states get to know him, the less they like him. 
• Lacks charisma.
• Despite his status as runner-up, he is running way behind Trump. 
• His debate performance was not the breakthrough moment that he hoped for.

The Potential Overtakers for Second Place

 Vivek Ramaswamy

Ahmed Gaber for The New York Times

CEO

Strengths: 

• Has consistently polled in third place and sometimes second.
• With DeSantis faltering, Ramaswamy seems to be nipping at his heels.
• As a billionaire, he can self-fund his campaign. 
• His message of anti-wokeness plays well with the conservative base.
• He is regarded by many to have won the first GOP debate. 

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• He seems to be focused on driving a message rather than winning.
• If his election caught fire, he may have to answer to alleged past ties with the Soros family. 

Nikki Haley

Drew Angerer—Getty Images

Former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Former South Carolina Governor 

Strengths:

• A popular former governor from a critical early primary state. 
• Her time as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations gives her foreign policy experience.
• She seems able to balance her messaging to please both Trump-supporting and Trump-weary Republicans. 
• Performed well in the first debate.
• Internal polling from MAGA Inc. shows that she is surging in Iowa and nearly tied with DeSantis in New Hamshire.

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• Allegedly inflating your financial numbers is not the type of scandal that a campaign wants so early in the race. 
• Polling data had indicated that her support is decreasing, but is that changing?
• Continuing her balancing act will be increasingly difficult as the race progresses. 
• Her potential strength in the South Carolina primary is diluted by the presence of Tim Scott in the race.
• She seems reminiscent of Bush-era Republicanism or Reaganism which is also no longer in vogue. 

Tim Scott

Anna Moneymaker for The New York Times

South Carolina Senator

Strengths:

• Has a home-state advantage in the early primary state of South Carolina. 
• Has experienced some uptick in polling data recently. 
• Is running on a positive message of kindness and unity.
• Has connections to wealthy donors.
• Qualified for the debate which is more than what some candidates can claim.

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• His potential strength in the South Carolina primary is diluted by the presence of Nikki Haley in the race.
• Nice guys finish last.
• His debate performance was lackluster and mistakes were made. “Tim Scott, are you bought and paid for?” “Absolutely.”

The Distant Hopefuls 

Chris Christie

AP Photo/Christopher Barth, File

Former Governor of New Jersey, Former U.S. Attorney of New Jersey 

Strengths:

• Has executive experience as the former governor of New Jersey.
• Recently polled above DeSantis in New Hampshire.
• He is not afraid to be aggressive toward his opponents, including Trump. 
• Qualified for the debate and showed a willingness to verbally assault his opponents. 

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• He is probably too moderate for the current mood of the Republican Party. 

Mike Pence

Photo by AP Photo/Matt Rouke

Former VP, Former Indiana Governor, Former Congressman 

Strengths:

• He has extensive government experience including as a congressman, governor, and Vice President.
• He is performing better in polls than one would expect.
• He attended the debate which is doing better than some candidates.

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• Many Republicans are still angry about January 6.
• Trump has demonized him to the point of being irrelevant.
• He is a household name but struggled to get the necessary donors to qualify for the debate. That should be a sign that his political career is done. 

Doug Burgum

Dave Wallis / The Forum

Governor of North Dakota 

Strengths:

• Governing experience.
• Had an okay debate performance.
• Has a Super PAC making major ad buys to try to make Burgum relevant in the race. 

Weaknesses: 

• Not Trump.
• Who?
• Failed to have a breakthrough moment at the debate that he bought his way into.

Asa Hutchinson 

Tom Williams/ZUMA

Former Governor of Arkansas 

Strengths:

• Governing experience. 
• Qualified for the debate.

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump. 
• Did not have a breakthrough moment during the first GOP debate.
• Lacks charisma. 

The Hopeless

Will Hurd

Bill Clark / CQ-Roll Call file

Former Congressman

Strengths:

• May appeal to the small base of “Never Trumpers.”
• His career as a CIA operative gives him national security bona fides. 
• Has a moderate, bipartisan message that would play well in the general election. 

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• Who? “Never Hurd of him.”
• Did not qualify for the first debate and the standards only get harder from here on out. 
• Anemic polling.
• Moderation and bipartisanship are not winning messages in a modern GOP primary. 

Ryan Binkley

Photo by Radio Iowa.

Pastor, CEO

Strengths: 

• Has focused heavily on Iowa which has included ad buys.
• Candidates with an evangelical-themed campaign play well in Iowa. 

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• Who? 
• Did not qualify for the debate.

Perry Johnson

Gage Skidmore 

Failed Candidate for Governor in Michigan, Businessman 

Strengths:

• If you find any, please message Grain of Salt News.

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• Who?
• Did not qualify for the debates despite the gimmicks. 

Larry Elder

Ringo Chiu/AFP via Getty Images

Failed Gubernatorial Candidate, Radio Host

Strengths:

• Some name recognition due to being a radio host.

Weaknesses: 

• Not Trump.
• Did not qualify for the debate and shows no signs of qualifying for future debates. 
• Anemic polling. 

Steve Laffey

Wikimedia Commons

Former Mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island

Strengths:

• Grain of Salt News cannot find any.

Weaknesses: 

• Not Trump.
• Who?
• Did not qualify for the debate.
• Executive experience in a town in the smallest state does not amount to much. 

Corey Stapleton 

 

Wikimedia Commons

Former Montana Secretary of State

Strengths:

• Will his country music woo voters in Iowa?

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• Who?
• Did not qualify for the debate.
• Lost several elections.

E.W. Jackson

AP,Carolyn Kaster

Pastor

Strengths:

• Maybe Iowans will appreciate a candidate who is “running for Jesus.”

Weaknesses:

• Not Trump.
• Who?
• Did not qualify for the debate. 
• May turn off Yoga practitioners.

The Dropouts 

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

SKIP TO CONTENTSKIP TO SITE INDEX

Candidate for Canadian Prime Minster Calls for a Wall

Henry Beavers, a 2019 candidate for Canadian prime minister running for the Canada First Party is calling for a wall on the United States/Canada border. “Canada will be a nation of loyal residents. We must stop the flow of America-symphasizing migrants that take advantage of our cool summers,” said Beavers. 

It is unknown how expensive Beavers’ proposal would be. When asked how Canada would pay for this wall, Beavers said the following: “The United States will pay for the wall. They will be obligated to pay for it after we offer to go halfsies on the United States/Mexico border wall.” When asked how Canada would benefit from building a wall in the United States, Beavers said the following: “those that cross the U.S. border ultimately want to come to Canada to take advantage of our fine socialistic system. Two walls will ensure that Canada’s welfare system only supports real Canadians.”

Another one of Beavers’ proposals is to allocate more resources to Canadian hockey teams to ensure that a Canadian team secures the Stanley Cup. “It is unacceptable that the Washington Capitals stole the Stanley Cup from Canadian teams,” said Beavers. In addition, Beavers has proposed that Canada should withdraw from NAFTA and the British Commonwealth. Finally, Beavers has vowed to end hunger and homelessness in Canada. “Under my leadership, no Canadian will be without poutine on the table and an igloo over their heads,” said Beavers.

The 43rd Canadian federal election will take place on October 21, 2019. Other candidates for prime minister include Justin Trudeau of the Liberal Party, Andrew Scheer of the Conservative Party, Jagmeet Singh of the New Democratic Party, Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois Party, Elizabeth May of the Green Party, and Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party.

~ Grain of Salt News 

“Take this nonsense with a grain of salt.”